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Sales Forecasting Expert

SalesSalesPart TimeRemoteTeam 11-50Since 2021H1B No SponsorCompany Site LinkedIn

Location

United States

Posted

111 days ago

Salary

$200 - $275 / hour

10 yrs expEnglish

Job Description

• Develop “gold-standard” peak-sales forecasts for representative drug programs using provided prompts, TPPs, and analogs. • Establish structural checks, scenario logic, and sanity thresholds for automated evaluation of forecasts. • Make explicit the heuristics, base-rate assumptions, and pattern-recognition principles that experienced forecasters use to distinguish credible projections from speculative ones. • A benchmark-quality peak-sales forecast including peak value and a revenue curve across key years. • A 3–5 point narrative on primary value drivers and 2–3 downside risks. • A structured evaluation framework for forecast credibility. • Commentary revealing expert forecaster reasoning, including: - How base rates and analogs are selected - How optimism is tempered (payer pushback, access constraints, share ceilings) - How to identify implausible model structures or magnitudes

Job Requirements

Director/Senior Director/VP-level experience in global forecasting, brand planning, or commercial insights.
Proven track record building and defending patient-based peak-sales models used for BD, portfolio, or investment decisions.
Experience forecasting across multiple drugs or indications, especially pre-launch through early commercialization.
Ability to clearly explain assumptions around penetration, price, ramp curves, LOE, and how they evolve post-launch.
Familiarity with preparing governance-ready peak-sales models for executive committees or investor-facing reviews.
Senior biotech equity analyst or VC/Buy-side professional experienced in incubation, company creation, or asset diligence.
Built patient-level and revenue models used for valuation, investment diligence, or transaction decisions.
Ability to critique bottoms-up forecasts and identify optimistic biases, flawed analogs, or unrealistic model structures.
10–15 years in biotech/pharma forecasting, investment, commercial strategy, or related fields.
Experience covering pre-launch forecasts through post-launch actuals for multiple assets.
CV bullets like:
“Led global forecast for [drug]”
“Owned long-range revenue planning and peak-sales scenarios”
“Built patient-based models for portfolio decisions”
Deep comfort with market modeling logic including: TPP → eligible pool → penetration → pricing/net → ramp curve → LOE
Ability to explain real vs. modeled outcomes and articulate where forecasts diverged from reality.